Dental Tribune India

New estimate by CDC reduces COVID-19 death rate to just 0.26% (IFR) from WHO’s 3.4% (CFR)

By Rajeev Chitguppi, Dental Tribune South Asia
May 24, 2020

The new CDC estimates for the severity, complications and deaths of COVID-19 bring down the numbers much lower making the overall scenario very optimistic. There is an ever-growing confusion between the two terms used for the death (fatality) rate. Read the addendum to understand the difference between the two numbers - CFR vs IFR. The original WHO numbers give an estimate of Case Fatality Rate (CFR). The new CDC numbers represent the Infection Fatality Rate (IFR).

For the first time, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has given a realistic estimate of the overall death rate for COVID-19, which in its most likely scenario is 0.26 %. They estimate a 0.4 % fatality rate among the symptomatic cases. If you consider their projection that 35% of all infected cases remain asymptomatic, the overall infection fatality rate (IFR) drops to just 0.26 %. This is almost exactly what the Stanford researchers had projected in April 2020.

John P.A. Ioannidis, a professor in medicine, epidemiology and population health, biomedical data science, and statistics at Stanford University had earlier calculated the reasonable estimates for the case fatality ratio in the general U.S. population to be in the range of 0.05% to 1%.

Click here to read the  March 2020 article by Prof. John Ioannidis: "A fiasco in the making? As the coronavirus pandemic takes hold, we are making decisions without reliable data"

Prof Ioannidis had also stated that "the reported case fatality rates, like the official 3.4% rate from the World Health Organization, cause horror — and are meaningless."

Click here to read the WHO estimate of case fatality rate of 3.4% where the WHO said "Globally, about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died. By comparison, seasonal flu generally kills far fewer than 1% of those infected."

Also, Dr Anthony Fauci had earlier estimated that the fatality rate of the coronavirus was about 2 %. Dr Anthony Stephen Fauci is an American physician and immunologist who has served as the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) since 1984. Since January 2020, he has been one of the lead members of the Trump Administration's White House Coronavirus Task Force addressing the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States. Fauci is considered one of the most trusted medical figures in the USA.

Click here to read Dr Anthony Fauci's editorial on 26 March 2020 in the New England Journal of Medicine (NEJM)

In short, the new report released by the CDC on 22 May 2020 shows the best estimate for overall infection fatality rate (IFR) of COVIDー19 to be 0.26 %.

Revised Fatality Rates by CDC (22 May 2020)

 

The new estimates of fatality rate released by the CDC are as follows for different age groups:

0-49 years old: 0.05%
50-64 years old: 0.2%
65+ years old: 1.3%
Overall ages: 0.4%

The CDC has also cautioned that the numbers are likely to change as new data arrives. But, if you consider how we have gone from 3.4 % to 2.0 % to now 0.26 %, it seems more likely that the number might get even lower as we get more data.

Click here to read the new estimates published by the CDC on 22 May 2020

________________________________________________________

Addendum:

The ever-growing confusion between the two numbers - 0.26 % by the CDC and 3.4% by the WHO:

Although it appears as if 0.26 % is a small fraction of the 3.4 % that the World Health Organization (WHO) originally estimated, there is a difference between the two numbers. WHO's 3.4% is the Case Fatality Rate (CFR) - the ratio of the number of deaths divided by the number of confirmed (preferably by nucleic acid testing) cases of the disease. CDC's new number 0.26% is the Infection Fatality Rate (IFR), which is the ratio of deaths divided by the number of actual infections with SARS-CoV-2.

One should note that the IFR is likely to be significantly lower than the CFR since the RT- PCR testing is limited and currently available primarily to people with significant indications of and risk factors for COVID-19 disease, and because a large number of infections with SARS-CoV-2 result in only mild or even asymptomatic disease.

113 Comments

  • Vivek Patni says:

    Good job Dr. Rajiv. Slowly numbers will start making sense and lots of nonsense will fizzle out.

  • Kapil kapoor says:

    Outstanding data

  • Suzanne Fehr says:

    Thank you. I can only hope that this optimistic news will make headlines as readily as the negativity did.

  • R Partington says:

    Political hit job on reporting cdc should be ashamed

  • Mark Fields says:

    This is a good analysis. If it were possible to stratify the data a bit more by age group it would be good to see. A person that is 64 year old will not suddenly be 6 more times likely to die if they get the virus upon turning 65.

    I am hopeful a vaccine developed.

  • Allen says:

    The CDC now takes orders and reports what Trump tells them to report. I do no believe in the CDC because only a fool would believe a CDC run by Trump.

  • Lucie says:

    Very informative

  • Amanda Penn says:

    I can’t help but wonder if the death rate has been manipulated to be lower in order to support President Trump. After all, the CDC is a federal agency

    Also, I suspect that there are deaths that are actually caused by COVID-19, but reported as due to another cause.

  • David Parks says:

    Although the CDC is under the control of Trump, who I wholeheartedly distrust, the numbers are corroborated by independent studies at reputable institutions. I appreciate that the article states that the understanding of these statistics is still evolving. I’m causally optimistic at hearing this report.

  • Mark says:

    A lower death rate is wonderful news compared to a higher death rate, but a .4% death rate if everyone were infected would imply the deaths of 1,300,000 Americans.

  • Ron Jonsson says:

    More BS data. The article headlines state the death rate is actually 0.26 but contradicts itself under the “overall by age” it says 0.4%, which is almost twice the rate. The numbers here are meaningless, particularly when considering the CDC is manipulated by political forces.

  • A cdc run by Trump? Well that cov 2 is a communist virus no doubt..that who is run by china and communist parties no doubt…that in the elderly there has been a devastating journey of the virus no doubt in a non mascherine available scenario no doubt. That the discovery of asymptomatic or paucisymptomatic people could have projected downward the estimate of letality from 3.2% to under 1..again no doubt no matter the political dress of the virus. What is astonishing is the very prolonged lockdown i.e.in Italy..with no mention of the mascherine in the individual and general protection from the beginning of the pandemia ..this is a political concern ..addressing the italian chinese catch up.of the deadly pandemic virus to get a communist golpe in italy

  • Linda says:

    Pandemics kill millions not thousands. The flu kills thousands every year, we don’t close. Open America & never close again.

  • J.W. says:

    It seems the CDC estimate is just a calming blanket since it goes against their own reported figures. As of May 23, the US has experienced a 6% fatality rate amongst reported cases (96,002 deaths out of 1595885 cases). So only if you assume one in 23 cases gets reported does the CDC estimate make sense. Smells of political interference.

  • Matthew Spangler says:

    You guys are confusing IFR (infection fatality rate) and CFR (case fatality rate) within the same article! The 3.4% number is CFR as you state correctly early in this article. Later on you contradict yourselves by saying 3.4% is IFR which is not the case. 0.26% is IFR which you also state in this article. You can’t just conflate two different numbers and say the WHO and CDC are contradicting each other.

    Reply from Dental Tribune South Asia:
    Dear Matthew Sprangler,
    Thank you for the feedback. We have added an addendum, where we have defined and separated the two different types of death rates -Case Fatality Rate (CFR) and Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) – mentioned in the article. Please check the modified title too.

  • Lilian Napoles says:

    I dont believe the Trump’s minions

  • JEFFREY D STALEY-HENNE says:

    I think a range of 0.05 to 1% is quite a big large to state he was pinpoint accurate. The CDC is now taking direct orders from a business Conman. What could possibly be false. Still these numbers are most likely true. Just don’t tell that to people in New York, Europe, Washington state, Nursing Homes, over 65, obese people, cancer patients, heart patients, etc.

  • Amanda Penn says:

    You can’t trust the current numbers from the CDC as to number of cases.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/22/us/politics/coronavirus-tests-cdc.html

  • Sam Porath says:

    How did they come up with these numbers? Did most of the people that died come back to life ?

  • Margie says:

    I don’t believe anything the CDC is saying as of three days ago. They have been “Trumped”. It will be many years until the truth and full story is told. But it will be told and our children’s children will be warned about deceit, abuse of power, lack of transparency and how the media can be used by the good, the bad and the ugly.

  • Sam Sir says:

    I am confused by the numbers. Even i look at just the USA we have 95000 deaths and 1600000 case. That works out to about 5%. What magic did they use to get .26%. What was the algorithim.

  • Jon says:

    There are a lot of uneducated, tin foil hat wearing Trump haters in the comment section…geesh.

    Just face reality, this virus isn’t as deadly as you doomsayers would like it to be. Just sit your morbidly obese asses home and let the rest of us get America back up and running.

  • Rosalinda says:

    Good topic

  • mike Tosti says:

    I will still be wearing a mask.

  • Mila Lyles says:

    There is a significant lack of available testing here in the United States. CDC numbers based on based on the miniscule number of tests performed are nothing more than political conjecture. Don’t believe them.

  • Charley Robinson says:

    Really cdc Really,

  • Mayflower says:

    CDC is Trump’s puppet. Do not believe a corrupted organization which couldn’t even produce a simple correct diagnostic tool for COVID 19.

  • Marie says:

    This shit is literally killing ppl and now the CDC falls in line with trump to try and get the economy open so ppl aren’t scared if you wasn’t scared before you should be now this piece of shit president only cares about money not lives!!!!

  • clyde says:

    SMFH so we still locked down lost our jobs for .26% Fauci birx and WHO all need to pay for this nonstop fear mongering bullshit

  • Ramaswamy Narayana says:

    This is a more realistic data. Hope the politicians and healthcare people take note of this and behave responsibly and not spread false news.

  • Ramaswamy Narayanan says:

    This is a more realistic data. Hope the politicians and healthcare people take note of this and behave responsibly and not spread false news.

  • Sherri Kelly says:

    In the U.S. we have around 328-329 million in population. COVID-19 has been a serious issue but, thankfully not millions! To be one percent of the population it would need to be over 3 million people. That’s not politics that is a fact! 2018 saw 80,000 die of the flu this has been worse but, not millions! There isn’t any leader that can stop a disease but, the WHO and CDC over estimated all the stats and numbers. We are saddened by the deaths let’s focus on treatments!

  • GORAN M MILANOVIC says:

    Great job!!!hoping for the best thsnk you

  • Ben Dover says:

    A CDC now controlled by a Trump appointee is about as trustworthy as gas station sushi.

  • Bob says:

    Bullshit conspiracy theory. The fact is the worst year of the flu killed 65000, covid had already killed
    100, 000 in 4 months which is 300,000 in a year. There is no comparison and this is not the flu and does not in anyway act the same with the same or less of a death rate.

  • Zhanduh Hubrisi says:

    This virus does not differentiate between political biases. The ONLY way that currently exists to defeat it are common sense combined with mutual respect. Sadly lacking now; both are oxymorons. To think that there exist people who believe hysterical Facebook posts over the most knowledgeable specialized sources is beyond belief!

  • Barbara Bennard says:

    Trump and his CDC rewrote the numbers….

  • Carol laing says:

    Come 11/3 this will amazingly become a non-issue! Just watch!!

  • Doug Daniels says:

    CDC also published that they have mixed the serology tests with the diagnostic tests. I recommend waiting until CDC has it’s got things sorted before doing this analysis.

  • Jerry Smith says:

    @Allen @Bob – Keep believing the horse manure that your socialist idols are feeding you. The data never made sense to anyone that truly understands statistics. Worst flu season ever was far higher than 65,000. Worst flu season in a few decades was 65,000. The latest data suggests that this is 2.6x worse than an AVERAGE flu season. To get a 0.1 average there has to be some higher and some lower. It’s a bad flu season gentlemen. Time to face facts, your socialist idols have taken away your rights because of the flu. Take the RED PILL, knowing the truth is empowering.

    Still afraid – that’s your right. Stay home if you want, just stop infringing on my rights!

  • Jerry Smith says:

    @Bob

    NOT 100,000. At least 25% to 50% of those reported are bogus.
    There’s a big difference dying from COVID-19 and dying with COVID-19. If you had a broken thumb and died in a car wreck you didn’t die from the broken thumb. If you had cancer and jumped off a 30 story building because you were distraught, you didn’t die from cancer.

    3000,000 is not statistically possible at this point. It’s a shame that not many people actually learned basic high school statistics, this is basic stuff folks.

    If you’re afraid, stay at home but don’t expect the rest of us to pay you a bonus for doing so. Get your grubby hands out of my wallet.

  • John Doe says:

    Just another flu season. Bet ya feel stupid now, but not as stupid as ya look with the mask on. 😆

  • Lawrence Schneider says:

    Thank you for this information. Quite a few people see things in a different way, so there will be no true agreement. Hopefully the Governor of Michigan uses some of this info.

  • A. Foster says:

    What’s missing is information on how many died with other comorbidities. This glaring omission skews the true facts @ C-19. Big difference in dying “of” vs “with”. Also need to know how many had C-19 put on death certificates but we’re not tested.

  • Kayla says:

    The CDC is a political arm which can’t be trusted now… Great…

  • AJ says:

    I do not believe this “updated” information from the CDC. It is ashamed that even more people will die from this virus because of false peace and safety propaganda like this.

  • Jessica Campos says:

    Don’t trust the CDC run by Trump they just want the numbers to look good now for the economies sake

  • Paul Block says:

    These stats are B.S. The current US death to cases ratio is closer to 6%. Divide known deaths into total cases. The rate has been climbing throughout the pandemic. CDC cannot be trusted under Trump.

  • Christopher says:

    Lets account for a margin of error considering the coding lumps in deaths with and from.

    It’s probably more like %.02 mortality.
    We also haven’t tested EVERYONE.

    Also, what does trump have to do with the CDC’s counting of COVID-19 cases??

    Are people seriously that delusional to think trump has some magical powers to alter reporting from all over America?
    Jesus have people lost all sense of rationality as of late 🤦‍♂️

  • Sherry says:

    So.. youbdo not trust what the CDC says.. If you are wearing a mask, social distanc8ng or sheltering in place YOU HAVE BELIEVED THE CDC.. Stop with your petty HATE for TRUMP..

  • Sherry says:

    the death rates are being lowered because they counted deaths that WERE not the PRIMARY CAUSE OF DEATH.. Meaning.. if you had cancer or any other deadly condition and had the virus or they assumed you had the Virus it was counted as a COVID death.

  • Kimberly Turnmyre says:

    Thank you CDC for FINALLY being forthcoming with accuracy now that you have been asked to do your job PROPERLY.

  • Chas Handler says:

    The fact that you believe that these numbers are fake because of Trump, shows your ignorance and hate Amanda Penn.

    How about looking at the science and DAT, dummy.

    You dount these numbers? Why? Because they don’t match your sill CNN mortality numbers that are skewed by the MSM? Go look. They only count deaths by/confirmed cases. Funny they keep telling you there are so many asymptomatic yet they aren’t including them or any figure as it relates to those NOT TESTED because they are asymptomatic and DON’T KNOW THEY ARE SICK.

    Go look at any testing. You libtards fail to recognize that less than 20% are INFECTED in ANY EVENT with 3,500+ people. Why is that? Cause you are sheep.

    Here is some FACT for you to sit on dumbasses.

    737,000 Americans dead would EQUAL .22% Mortality Rate

    We are at 99,300.

    And for your ignorant ass especially, Amanda.

    The CDC sent out a form to COUNT ALL DEATHS of any type with CoViD as CoViD deaths. So stop trying to imply people weren’t counted. People were OVERCOUNTED in many cases.

    https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvss/coronavirus/Alert-2-New-ICD-code-introduced-for-COVID-19-deaths.pdf

    And you can feel free to hit me up if you need to see Dr. Birx or numerous Democrat Health Officials make the same claim that they ARE COUNTING ALL deaths as CoViD, even if they died from something else. How DemonRat of you to imply the very corruption you Democrats are committing.

    Wait til Trump and the Feds audit all your corrupt Dem Governors. LMAO

  • John says:

    If CDC is “under Trump’s control”, why didn’t they revise death rate before their inaccurate prior death rate destroyed the economy, put 25 million people out of work, and gave leftist conspiracy theorists in the media false reason to blame it all on Trump?

    Biggest threat isn’t CV19. It’s the astounding stupidity of liberals incapable who gulp the media Kool Aid by the gallon.

  • Haydee Torres says:

    This gives a new relaxing hope eventhough we should still be very cautious, as COVI-19 is a Pandemic and we do not want to be in those statistics. I will continue wearing a mask.

  • JB says:

    This, even though the Stanford study was peer reviewed, and determined to be incredibly fallible by multiple independent researchers, via bias collection? This is complete BS. At this point, it’s simply sheer stupidity. We don’t live in a bubble here in the U.S, either. This virus has reached every country on this globe. There is so much data available for analysts to pour over now that it’s ignorance to believe that somehow the mortality rate here is so much lower than the rest of the world. I challenge this “reporter” to first do an analysis on the Stanford study. Seriously. You can’t just say they were right, because now the CDC is changing their rates. Where is the validation? Where is the analysis? This story is crap, and you know it. Might as well have your head up the a$$ of whomever is trying to sell you this bridge in Alaska. GTFOH with your sycophantic garbage.

  • Jerry Bents says:

    The lack of intelligence of so many of the comments are frightening. Many don’t seem to be able to understand data. Some indicate the CDC are faking the data to help Trump. It has been known since day 1 that the WHO number was way too high. The data was quietly released by the CDC with no fanfare, on a Friday before a Holiday, definitely not done to help Trump who the CDC have been contradicting every chance they get. These numbers are in fact in line with what the unbiased experts have believed since the beginning. Why some want this to be worse then it is, bizarre.

  • Dani says:

    Wait… So my 18mo with a large hole in his heart is only at .05% risk and I can stop worrying? He almost died of the rhinovirus last year and so this stastic is very important for my family.
    I also ran the simple math of American deaths into total cases and came up with a different number. So I all very concerned and confused right now.
    Also, What happened in Italy if this virus only has a mortality rate of .26%?
    Will this kill my baby or not, I need to know

  • Suzan Deacon says:

    At the behest of Trump admin I think the CDC has mixed the tasty cherry flavored kool-aid with the less favorite lime flavored kool-aid and we’re being told to drink up. Afterall isn’t this the same federal agency that mixed serology tests with diagnostic tests for what was the reason again? To mislead. If nothing else they’ll be remembered as the dangerous
    mixologists of 2020.

  • CR says:

    Ron Johnson: Did you actually read the article? It clearly states the symptomatic death rate is 0.4%. If you take that and deduct 35% to account for asymptomatic cases, you get 0.26%.

  • Marie says:

    By reading posted comments I see his objective is reached. A Nation divided. Those that we SHOULD be commemorating on this Memorial Day & their ultimate sacrifice forgotten. To have died for our freedom & the rights we many a times take for granted is shameful. To those that believe the powers that be it is Your right. What is NOT your right is to hurl insults,derogatory remarks or otherwise. Respect is a two way street. Respect those of us who choose to want to protect our Loved Ones. We have ALL lost,we have ALL sacrificed. No one person is better than the other. Kindness,basic humanity,respect, are victims of this pandemic as well. Honor the lives of those who fought & died..Honor the lives of those we have lost & Honor the lives of those still fighting…..

  • monick gandhi says:

    1.3 million people die each year in the US in car accidents. It is up to us whether or not to go to work, shop, socialise, go to school and what not. Pre-covid, I like millions of Americans choose to go to work in spite of the statistics. By managing these odds….. I refused to die by car accidents. So, whatever your personal opinion is about the politics of these latest numbers by the CDC. Just manage it by social distance and masks and hand washes by knowing fully well that it is never about saving lives. If it was, then the speed limit would have been only 10 MPH. In a year or so, we will all know how many more deaths then normal occurred in the whole world. Then we can start fighting again whether or not to believe the numbers, but at least hopefully we will be fighting while actively participating in this economy.

  • M n M says:

    Sympathy for the the devils that didnt thinkof the elderly, me, me, me.

  • Amanda Penn says:

    Chase Handler, you should check actual numbers before you start calling anybody names.

    e
    Even if you absolutely trust the CDC this report doesn’t make sense. Taking numbers directly from the CDC website there have been 97,049 deaths due to COVID-19 out of 1,622,114 total cases. A bit of simple math yields a mortality rate of 5.98%.

    That is obviously a lot higher than what they are claiming in the article.

  • btzdvd says:

    In order to achieve a .4% infection fatality rate based on the current number of deaths in New York City, approximately 21% of the populations New York would need to have already been infected. The math is very simple. There is no data that supports this infection rate so this analysis is very suspect to say the least.

  • BARB says:

    You can tout all the conspiracy theories you like. You can try to crunch scientific data based on media hype all you want to prove your favorite conspiracy theory or reason to hate whatever part of the administration you choose. As a touted “frontliner” I do what I’ve always done, I love up, gown up, mask up as required by the disease process of the person I’m giving direct care to. I’m required to employ droplet precautions for someone presenting with a verified common cold who may be in the hospital because their appendix exploded. As a “frontliner” the biggest frustration lays in the lack of equipment and supplies to do our job safely. People stealing our gowns, gloves, masks to the point what few we do have needs to be under lock and key. Fear was the deciding factor. To profit from fear by reselling stolen protective equipment. People justifying attacks on others based on fear. Making decisions based on fear. When conversations and justifications are based on underlying fear rather than common sense, you lose your credibility. But even I with my education and experience in the science of epidemiology cannot dispute or verify the accuracy of the CDC numbers but can say they are closer to what is real than just the media reported numbers. Because science and statistics are not based on media-hyped numbers reported by the major news outlets. The science behind the numbers released by the CDC are based on factors and variables the media does not have the brains to understand or calculate. Their reporting has a biased fear factor as well, you know, for ratings and such. So to use media reported numbers to dispute the CDC is rather ludicrous. At least these numbers are closer to other reliable statistic reports from those with the science to back them up. And the administration, Democrats or Republicans, cannot control all the data, the numbers or statistics, but they can feed on your fear and your biases. Yay for you being controlled.

  • Sandy Bear says:

    THIS IS NOT A PANDEMIC. MILLIONS WOULD BE DEAD, NOT THOUSANDS. WAKE UP AND OPEN UP AMERICA.

  • Natasha M. says:

    Me and three of my family members had Covid starting mid-January in Oklahoma. I didn’t know what I had was Covid until I was laid-off in March and the symptoms I’d been searching in January and February turned out to be Covid. I had it all minus the loss of taste and smell and Covid toes. I have a searches from February: strange flu with conjunctivitis, recurring flu, flu that won’t go away, etc. I had “happy hypoxia” and didn’t really understand what was happening. I was unable to function cognitively as I was used to for weeks and my legs gave out twice in a week while I was walking.

    African countries were taking steps back in January, when we should have been. No one can convince me any of these “experts” know anything. Also, it’s pretty clear we’re getting Shock Doctrines again.

    I have zero faith the our systems are designed to protect the common man. They knew they’re was a possible issue emerging and all of them, all sides of the aisles quietly secured their assets. Out systems are designed to protect the monetary interests of very few, not our lives.

  • Hank Curtis says:

    When will we get a percentage breakdown of those hospitalized and those killed by the virus as follows:
    1.In a nursing home or prison/detention facility.
    2. Those with a pre existing condition that compromised their immune system.
    3. The elderly – above 65.
    4. The rest of the percentage would those that do not fit into any of the above three categories.

  • John Peterson says:

    The numbers. We know what they say died from it. Even though we know those are over inflated. death by covid and death with presumed symptoms are different. Also the 20% reduction like as in Colorado since they have been put on the spot. Which you can pretty much count that across the board. Well save that discussion for later. Let’s go with the numbers of deaths reported now. That’s a hard number. We know exactly what that number is. They then take the number of positive tests and the number of negative test. Figure out the ratio. Then they take the number of people that have yet to be tested and apply that ratio to them. To get an overall estimate. The percentage of deaths will most likely drop. Because the majority of those tested so far had a reason to believe they were positive.

  • John Peterson says:

    The numbers. We know what they say died from it. Even though we know those are over inflated. death by covid and death with presumed symptoms are different. Also the 20% reduction like as in Colorado since they have been put on the spot. Which you can pretty much count that across the board. Well save that discussion for later. Let’s go with the numbers of deaths reported now. That’s a hard number. We know exactly what that number is. They then take the number of positive tests and the number of negative test. Figure out the ratio. Then they take the number of people that have yet to be tested and apply that ratio to them. To get an overall estimate. The percentage of deaths will most likely drop. Because the majority of those tested so far had a reason to believe they were positive. Simple explanation

  • Robert Genz says:

    The truth is always somewhere in the middle.
    Too many want to create news without all of the facts. The CDC lifers are overwhelmingly Democrats. We’re supposed to believe the CDC when a Democrats at the top. Laughable.

  • Marsha Millard says:

    Add the asymptomatic people who unknowingly carry the virus (without evidence) and the fatality rate dramatically drops. Geee, ya think? We’ve already known this for over two months based on testing done elsewhere. You know what it doesn’t change? The 95,000 people Covid-19 killed. That’s 33,000 more people Covid-19 killed in 3 months than the flu did in 6.

  • Robert Ostreicher says:

    We are being feed what big business and Trumo wants us to hear. Don’t trust any of this fake news being directed by a mad man.

  • At the present rate of infection this means over 1 million deaths. This is not a small number.

  • Outraged says:

    Here’s an idea—stop all testing. Stop all restrictions on who can go where and when they can go. Let’s just all go on with our lives and do “business as usual”.
    Then, in about three (3) months, the reality if this pandemic will be revealed. Just ignore all of it.

    Let’s see if it all “just goes away “.

    Let’s just see how much “balls” you nay sayers really have. Time will tell.
    Then we can all say “are you tired of whinning yet”? Or was that “winning”?
    Nature’s rule–survival of the fittest. Bye bye weaklings.

  • Antoine Simmons says:

    Caution is warranted here. I dont teust anything thst comes from any organization ruled by the curtent US Administration. This all may be legit, but it is just too convenient given the current priorities of the POTUS. I don’t trust it and the WHO is whom I would be listening to for the time being.

  • Louis J Manco says:

    A pandemic comes to America from China. The WHO and

  • Amused says:

    I know!! Just pretend there is no so called COVID19. Open up everything. Don’t mention any numbers about anything. No more face masks, no more hand sanitizer, no more obsessive hand washing—wastes too much water. No more rediculous “social distancing “, stand shoulder to shoulder, eat, drink and be merry . Go back to work, go out and eat, go to the ball game. And please, take all those rediculous ” we’re all in this together” spots off tv. Let’s just try and pretend the past five month ugly never happened! Then, in November, go vote again for our great leader, DONALD J. TRUMP. That is, if you’re allowed or able.

  • perspicio says:

    This information does / doesn’t comport with what I already believe, therefore I will / won’t trust it.

  • perspicio says:

    The idea that “the truth is always somewhere in the middle” grants enormous power and influence to extremists.

    The truth doesn’t depend on what anybody says.

  • ViperGuy says:

    I don’t buy this for one second. My local crematory has been overwhelmed 4 fold the past few months. They said they have never seen anything like it, the amount of bodies that have been coming in. They said without a doubt, many of these deaths we’re not counted because they did not die at a hospital but that there’s no possible way it was not the coronavirus. Going from 30 bodies a day to 120 is not like the seasonal flu and is not 0.26%. shame on the CDC for publishing such grossly skewed data designed only to push a political agenda. The numbers don’t lie, the death rate is closer to 2% which is very, very deadly. Just watch this virus bounce back this coming fall when everybody gets complacent.

  • Eric Rachut, M.D. says:

    Mortality rates such as 0.26% are still too high for both this novel coronavirus and the influenza virus strains seen since 1918-1919. On their website, the CDC estimates that from 39,000,000 to 56,000,000 Americans have had a flu-type illness in the season from Oct 2019 to April 2020 and that specifically 8% of Americans in that time have been infected by influenza virus. With a mortality of around 0.26% (and influenza and corona viruses are thought to have around that figure), the total number of deaths from influenza virus alone should have been one in 400 patients, or at least 100,000 and as many as 140,000. In actuality, the number is a fraction of that (influenza virus does have a particularly effective vaccine this year). So the true mortality should be around 0.06% – or less.

  • Sane in crazyland says:

    Don’t forget this is after we flatten the curve. Without that action we would have hospitals overrun. We will still have to be careful even if these numbers are true. The problems is that the numbers don’t add up. You can tell it’s political when they are still on that republican talking point about the flu. Any way you slice it this thing is, even by these trumped up numbers, at least twice as deadly as the flu.

  • Katherine Kendall says:

    Numbers do not exist. This lower death rate is a result of Americans taking precautions. If Americans had not been practicing social distancing, avoiding large groups, or wearing PPE, these numbers would look quite different. Quit misleading the masses and pretending these numbers are accurate. Once again, COVID-19 is being treated like the common flu when the health risks and death rate are potentially far greater.

  • Stats Prof says:

    Australia implemented an $11,000 fine for violating sensible public precautions.

    Australia lost 100 people before successfully managing (if not containing) the virus. Look to worldometer.com to find other such examples and verified traceable data.

    The USA & Brazil politicized wearing a mask. Russia defenestrated medical containment leaders for being honest. All 3 are mortality leaders.

    Maybe just wearing a mask for 3 weeks is better than what we’ve been doing.

    United we stand divided we fall.

    The normal flu has never killed 100,000 US citizens in 2 1/2 months.

    One way of looking at the mortality rate is how many die who have symptoms serious enough to seek testing or treatment?

    This question is relevant when comparing COVID-19 to the normal flu mortality rate of .1% because this is where that .1% estimate really really originated and not from a random sample.

    In this light, the measurable coronavirus mortality rate for **noticable** cases is much higher than even WHO’s estimates. Unless autoimmunity magically appears, imagining how many have an asymptomatic trace of the virus isn’t even academic without a truly random sample.

    All of this & simple common sense yet sadly, I won’t be surprised to see extremists screaming about plots as the body count reaches beyond epic numbers this Fall and Winter. This, too, is based on observing trends, including the posts here.

  • Stats Prof says:

    Australia implemented an $11,000 fine for violating sensible public precautions.

    Australia lost 100 people before successfully managing (if not containing) the virus. Look to worldometer.com to find other such examples and verified traceable data.

    The USA & Brazil politicized wearing a mask. Russia defenestrated medical containment leaders for being honest. All 3 are mortality leaders.

    Maybe just wearing a mask for 3 weeks is better than what we’ve been doing.

    United we stand divided we fall.

    The normal flu has never killed 100,000 US citizens in 2 1/2 months.

    One way of looking at the mortality rate is how many die who have symptoms serious enough to seek testing or treatment?

    This question is relevant when comparing COVID-19 to the normal flu mortality rate of .1% because this is where that .1% estimate really really originated and not from a random sample.

    In this light, the measurable coronavirus mortality rate for **noticable** cases is much higher than even WHO’s estimates. Unless autoimmunity magically appears, imagining how many have an asymptomatic trace of the virus isn’t even academic without a truly random sample.

    All of this & simple common sense yet sadly, I won’t be surprised to see extremists screaming about plots as the body count reaches beyond epic numbers this Fall and Winter. This, too, is based on observing trends, including the posts here…

  • Ryan says:

    Cant believe someone commented that we are severely lacking testing in the US. In NJ which has been hard hit, literally every pharmacy in the state can test without a Dr. Or Rx. Stop watching BS news channels, you sound severly uneducated! And deaths have NOT been undercounted but actually the exact opposite, if someone dies in a car accident and test positive for covid they are counted. ?? Drs are paid to label deaths covid… look it up. The death rate is shrinking because they’re are a lot of people who are not getting seriously sick from this and not being included in the total # of infections. Youd think this should be good news for everyone.

  • Bill says:

    I’m confused about 0.26%. The 0.4% is the symptomatic CFR. You can’t take out the 35% of people who are asymptomatic from that number because they already aren’t included to begin with in the symptomatic CFR. What am I missing?

  • Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics says:

    It is truly amazing to read the ignorant responses on here, especially from the people who lean a certain way politically.

    Try thinking for yourself and actually using some logic. All the way back on April 23rd, many news outlets reported that over 7,500 antibody tests had been given to NY residents. 25% of NY city residents were positive for the Covid-19 antibody and 14.9% for all whom had been tested in the state. This would mean AT LEAST 2.7 MILLION New Yorkers have already had Covid-19, back in April, and the number is certainly higher now. This means the death rate in New York was under 1% in the single largest hotbed in the US. Stanford and others have done antibody testing which also showed that many more Americans have been exposed than reported. Yet none of these confirmed positives are put into the Covid case total.

    For the geniuses in the comment section simply dividing the number of deaths by the cases reported, of course you get a higher death rate. Maybe try just simply adding in the 2.7 million New Yorkers who have already had Covid-19 and see how the fatality rate drops – but that would take some critical thinking instead of just relying on what CNN/MSNBC tells you.

    The other problem with the total number of deaths is that Dr. Birx herself said they were coding all deaths of people with Covid as Covid deaths. So, if someone died of heart failure while being Covid positive, they are counted as having died of Covid, not heart failure. This artificially inflates the death rate. We don’t do this with the flu. Google the stories of people who died from CHF or other illnesses (or the person with the blood alcohol content of 0.55%) and COD was listed as Covid.

    When you take into account that TENS OF MILLIONS of Americans have already been exposed and have the Covid antibodies, the 0.26% rate is actually quite believable.

  • MichelleS says:

    Has anyone bothered to look at New Zealand and South Korea data. Those countries had extensive testing and contact tracing, so there CFR and IFR should be quite close. Last I saw their CFR was around 1.4%. This makes me question the CDC’s IFR. Seems low.

  • MichelleS says:

    Did anyone bother to go to the CDC website? The numbers wuote are for planning scenarios. This is a misleading article.

    We can only hope that the IFR is as low as the article states. Based on New Zealand data the CFR and probably the IFR are at 1.4%.

  • Mike A says:

    @Bill
    1. The fatality rate for symptomatic people is 0.4%
    2. Symptomatic people make up 65% of COVID-19 infections
    3. The fatality rate for asymptomatic people is 0%
    4. Asymptomatic people make up 35% of COVID-19 infections
    5. If 100 people are infected with COVID-19 65 people will die with a 0.4% fatality rate and 35% won’t die at all (0% fatality rate), therefore, it lowers the fatality rate for those 100 people to 0.26%
    (65 x .4%) + (35 x 0%) = 0.26%

    Does this help?

  • bhuvandas says:

    This figure gives a positive effect to the entire world, for sure.

  • eil says:

    All of you naysayers, if you would just stop watching main stream media, and stop believing that they have unbiased news, this number would not be a surprise to you. Several REAL and legitimate, studies done by Real Scientists and Doctors, at high profile universities, here and in other countries, have been saying this for weeks. But Google, YouTube, and Facebook censor many of these stories..

  • Lee C says:

    To Lilian Napoles
    May 24, 2020 at 5:57 pm
    Your “I dont believe the Trump’s minions.”

    The CDC ‘minions’ you.refer to are the same Inadequate minions who were employed during the previous administration. Stop your fear mongering and get the country back to work.

  • K says:

    Wow shocking – a “doctor” who can do simple math correctly…

    Haven’t seen that in a while, congratulations!

  • rndata says:

    Why not look at the most concerning end result which is death? The CDC has information listed showing the trend of deaths for the past 3 years. 2018 showed a decent spike because of that bad flu season. It shows a slightly larger spike during COVID-19. The data is still weighted as not all deaths are reported yet, but it still adds some perspective as to how we’re NOT seeing an exponentially larger mortality rate.

  • Ryan McGraw says:

    Anyone purporting that the CDC is a group of Trump’s minions is truly ignorant. Did you not read the article? The IFR is a different parameter than the CFR. If you don’t understand the math and how it was obtained, you have the potential of spreading misinformation. Please reread and don’t criticize just because of some media outlet says something anti-Trump.

  • Jason says:

    Amazing how those who say they are for science and data reject science and data when it doesn’t say what they want. There are now multiple studies that suggest these numbers are real. Those o us from the beginning with a background in data analytics have been questioning the original fatalit y rate, with the stated R0 contagious rates. We knew BOTH could not be true, You can’t have an infection rate of over 2.5 and 3.0 fatality rate and not have millions already dead in the world,regardless of social distancing. to try and understand the data remember the old a penny doubled every day for 31 days is worth over 11,000,000., well at 2.5 rate it is over 8 Billion

  • Rob Yago says:

    Some of these comments are hysterical. So you don’t trust the CDC now? Even though they provide the bulk of all casualty data for everything from firearms to disease. So who do you trust then? The WHO? They are VERIFIABLY corrupt and have been involved in multiple scandals. And let’s say the CDC has been corrupted… You think Trump is the first and only guy to spoil them? If you believe that this data is corrupt, then ALL DATA… EVER… Is subject to corruption… Including the previous CV-19 data. And I will say this… Thise who hold the power have A LOT more to gain by inflating the numbers and instituting new control over the populace. So if anything, the numbers are TOO HIGH…

  • B says:

    Literally no reason to trust the CDC data over WHO and vice versa.

    That being said, I would trust ‘confirmed’ cases data much more than ‘infected’ since those numbers are inflated by false positives, assumptive cases, etc.

    Don’t just believe the narrative you want to believe is real, think rationally, and if you’re incapable of that, then be respectful of others that can.

  • Shawn says:

    It has been proven that hospitals get more money for Covid19 deaths. So money hungry, unethical doctors signed off on death certificates as Covid19 when in reality they died of a heart disease or cancer or an auto accident. This created a mass panic and the colapse of our economy. Masks are useless. They are just used to keep the fear down. I believe this was all orchastrated by the democrats to keep Trump from winning the election this year. People need to wake up. 95% of news is false. Trump did amazing things for this country for 3 years. This 4th year the dems put Trump in an impossible situation.

  • Mohammed Giashuddin says:

    No datum about covid19 is beyond any doubt. Yet, this new data is one big BS. Seems government manipulated. Asymptomatic infection rate is not an established fact. It is too variable as cited from different reports from different cities and countries. Even it was very hard for symptomatic patients to get RT-PCR tests, it was not feasible and least likely to get virus tests for asymptomatic population. To determine the asymptomatic infection number by antibody test is another nebulous area and subject to fuzzy math. So it’s an Ill attempt to reduce the fatality rate based on presumptive asymptosis of covid19 infection. Downplaying the disease by many governments already has the colossal impact on human lives and furthering it, can be too decimating for second surge if it happens.

  • George says:

    The last paragraph doesn’t make sense. Why should we expect the case fatality rate which is based on estimated number of cases as the denominator be expected to be higher than the infection fatality rate which is based on the ACTUAL number of cases??? The actual number of cases surely is likely to be lower and using the same numerator of actual deaths shouldn’t that mean a higher rate than the case fatality??? Again, showing that in actual sense this virus’ deadliness was largely overstated! You were so wrong, just come clean!

  • Nikolas says:

    All of you suddenly not trusting this because of Trump need to seriously wake up. The CDC was never trustworthy. The numbers are overblown. The narrative has been thoroughly debunked. There isn’t even a test for C19, just RNA fragments. People dying having tested positive are listed as dying of C19 which is not accurate. There ARE nefarious purposes behind the narrative of fear. Stop wishing for bad news. Stop being afraid. The numbers are overblown. Financial incentives to diagnose and potentially incorrectly use ventilators should concern you. Nursing homes being virtually forced to infect their occupants should concern you. The numbers should not scare you. Trump should not be the one you mistrust. Please people, get a grip. If you mistrust the CDC now, you should have trusted it even less before! The fear kills people. The lockdowns kill and hurt people. Social distancing hurts us. This is not something to be afraid of and any potential vaccine should worry you more if you employ your critical thinking. For the first time ever the CDC had released suspicious instructions to medical professionals on how to fill out death certificates. I could go on and on. Just look at the average of the deceased. The sad part is the dignity they were denied.

    https://www.gov.uk/guidance/high-consequence-infectious-diseases-hcid

    https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/

    https://www.globalresearch.ca/12-experts-questioning-coronavirus-panic/5707532

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8zOjpUravdI

    https://www.westonaprice.org/health-topics/vaccinations/chronic-disease-a-study-of-vaccinated-and-unvaccinated-children/

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nBAvyq34_OI

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zoK6h4Mg7E8

    Reply from Dental Tribune South Asia:
    Thank you for the feedback. Please read the addendum, where we have defined and separated the two different types of death rates -(1) Case Fatality Rate (CFR) that was published by WHO earlier and (2) Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) published recently by the CDC. Both are different statistics. The title itself makes the whole story clear.

  • Johny says:

    Those are FAKE INFO because they are based on MARCH 2020 prediction, and now we have June 2020.

    The real data are shown on CDC webpage and mortality rate is 5.81% you can can find on https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html

    Total Cases 1,827,425 – Total Deaths 106,202 – This gives 5.81% mortality rate.

    Please correct your data and stop spreading fake news.

    Reply from Dental Tribune South Asia:
    Thank you for the feedback. Please read the addendum, where we have defined and separated the two different types of death rates -(1) Case Fatality Rate (CFR) that was published by WHO earlier and (2) Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) published recently by the CDC. Both are different statistics. The title itself makes the whole story clear.

  • OldDoug says:

    This is a horrendously silly article, to the point of it being nonsense. While an overall death rate of 0.26% sounds like a decent prediction to me (it’s actually the bottom end of my own predicted range of 0.26% – 0.6%), comparisons to the case fatality rate in these early times of the virus outbreak are ludicrous. Moreover, the article uses WHO statements from more than three months ago.

    Reply from Dental Tribune South Asia:
    Thank you for the feedback. Please read the addendum, where we have defined and separated the two different types of death rates -(1) Case Fatality Rate (CFR) that was published by WHO earlier and (2) Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) published recently by the CDC. Both are different statistics. The title itself makes the whole story clear.

  • fonzie says:

    Wow(!) Many many comments from the OMB (orange man bad) crowd. Still others from the ET (ever trumper) crowd. So, let’s get a grip, shall we?

    The imperial college model, that Trump touted as saying the 2.2 million would die, had 81% of the country infected with an implied ifr of about 0.8%. The CDC now has come out with 0.26%, not too far off from the imperial college model. Given the same number of infected, that would produce roughly 700,000 mortalities or about 1/3 that of imperial college. Does that not sound about right to everybody? FWIW, flu pandemics from the 50s and 60s resulted in over 100,000 deaths, the ifr in those instances were about 0.2%. Seems the issue with chinavirus is not its lethality, rather its faster rate of spread…

    *i came down with something nasty right after mardi gras here in new orleans. assuming it was covid, there is really not much to worry about here. use the same precautions that you would with the flu. protect your elderly and other vulnerable loved ones. unfortunately, these lock downs have ultimately made it a much longer haul for our vulnerable. so, as we return to work, keep at it america! (don’t let your guard down now) …

  • Steve says:

    Ron Jonsson

    Wrote:

    More BS data. The article headlines state the death rate is actually 0.26 but contradicts itself under the “overall by age” it says 0.4%, which is almost twice the rate. The numbers here are meaningless, particularly when considering the CDC is manipulated by political forces.”

    0.4% is among symptomatic cases. 0.26% is the overall IFR including both symptomatic cases and cases where no symptoms manifest, i.e. asymptomatic cases. The latter data is mostly taken from antibody testing since few asymptomatic people will seek conventional testing, especially when they are being told to social distance, thus they must be sought out by researchers. This makes perfect sense since cases which are symptomatic would quite logically be expected to be more severe and result in higher IFR than asymptomatic ones which will have an IFR at or very near 0% (0% absent some unproven aspect of the disease which can cause spontaneous death without symptoms appearing). So no, neither the data nor the conclusions drawn from it are “BS”, you are just not comprehending what you are reading. Alas a common problem now in America.

  • Rene Munday says:

    I am trying to find the updated rates since these were published in May but I can’t, can someone post a link?

  • Ms Jaxie says:

    You people who say keep us locked down for this disease obviously have nothing to lose! There are families that have no food or other resources because of this lockdown. This is beyond crazy! Those of you who wanna stay home, have at it!… I can not for the life of me understand why you guys don’t see what this will do to the United States. If the economy gets crushed.. no welfare checks… no ss Checks. Bet then you’ll regret yelling “stay home” “lockdown” ! We need to open America back up before it’s too l8… oh and if ur scared…wear that worthless mask that won’t stop ANY VIRUS!!

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