Three data-driven analyses on the pattern of COVID-19 pandemic and when it will probably end.
Dental Tribune South Asia had published on 10th March 2020 - a report on Farr's law, which states that "epidemics tend to rise and fall in a roughly symmetrical pattern or bell-shaped curve." AIDS, SARS, Ebola — they all followed that pattern. That report was based on a study jointly published by Shanghai and Rutgers universities. With more and more data coming in, there are two more reports - one using simple statistical methods and the other using the SIR Model for Spread of Disease, The Differential Equation Model.
1. Data highlighting Farr's law by Shanghai University, China and Rutger's Public Health School, NJ, USA:
Dental Tribune South Asia had published on 10th March 2020 - a report on Farr's law, which states that "epidemics tend to rise and fall in a roughly symmetrical pattern or bell-shaped curve." AIDS, SARS, Ebola — they all followed that pattern. So does seasonal flu each year.
Farr's law - an often ignored law in every epidemic hysteria - may throw some light on the pattern of epidemics including that of coronavirus (COVID-19) that is turning into a pandemic. A group of researchers from Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, China and Rutgers School of Public Health, NJ, USA have developed a model based on Farr's law using the data available on Feb. 8, 2020. They have analysed the data to predict the daily-incidence of 2019-nCoV infection in China, Hubei Province and Wuhan City afterwards. Will this model be accurate in predicting the rise and fall of Coronavirus (COVID-19)?
The study 'Trends and prediction in the daily incidence of novel coronavirus infection in China, Hubei Province and Wuhan City: an application of Farr law' was posted on medRxiv (as a preprint and non-peer reviewed article) on 23 Feb 2020
2. Professor Isaac Ben Israel's calculations based on simple statistical analysis:
Isaac Ben-Israel is an Israeli military scientist, general and ex-politician. He currently serves as the chairman of the Israeli Space Agency and the National Council for Research and Development, under the auspices of the Ministry of Science, Technology and Space of Israel. He finished his service in the IDF ranked General, serving as head of the military Administration for the Development of Weapons and the Technological Industry. Between 2010-2012 he served as chief Cybernetics adviser to PM Netanyahu, during which period he founded the National Cyber Bureau in the PM office and launched the National Cyber Initiative.
A prominent Israeli mathematician, analyst and former general Isaac Ben Israel claims that simple statistical analysis demonstrates that the spread of COVID-19 follows a pattern and resembles a curve. Prof Isaac Ben-Israel, head of the Security Studies program in Tel Aviv University and the chairman of the National Council for Research and Development, has explained the research he conducted with a fellow professor, analyzing the growth and decline of new cases in countries around the world, showed repeatedly that “there’s a set pattern” and “the numbers speak for themselves.”
He says the numbers peak after about 40 days and decline to almost zero after 70 days — no matter where it strikes, and no matter what measures governments impose to try to thwart it.