DT News - India - Three data-driven analyses on the pattern of COVID-19 pandemic and when it will probably end.

Rajeev Chitguppi, Dental Tribune South Asia

Mon. 27 April 2020

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Dental Tribune South Asia had published on 10th March 2020 - a report on Farr's law, which states that "epidemics tend to rise and fall in a roughly symmetrical pattern or bell-shaped curve." AIDS, SARS, Ebola — they all followed that pattern. That report was based on a study jointly published by Shanghai and Rutgers universities. With more and more data coming in, there are two more reports - one using simple statistical methods and the other using the SIR Model for Spread of Disease, The Differential Equation Model.

1. Data highlighting Farr's law by Shanghai University, China and Rutger's Public Health School, NJ, USA:

Dental Tribune South Asia had published on 10th March 2020 - a report on Farr's law, which states that "epidemics tend to rise and fall in a roughly symmetrical pattern or bell-shaped curve." AIDS, SARS, Ebola — they all followed that pattern. So does seasonal flu each year.

Click here to read the article published by Dental Tribune South Asia on Farr's Law' on 10th March 2020

Farr's law - an often ignored law in every epidemic hysteria - may throw some light on the pattern of epidemics including that of coronavirus (COVID-19) that is turning into a pandemic. A group of researchers from Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, China and Rutgers School of Public Health, NJ, USA have developed a model based on Farr's law using the data available on Feb. 8, 2020. They have analysed the data to predict the daily-incidence of 2019-nCoV infection in China, Hubei Province and Wuhan City afterwards. Will this model be accurate in predicting the rise and fall of Coronavirus (COVID-19)?

The study 'Trends and prediction in the daily incidence of novel coronavirus infection in China, Hubei Province and Wuhan City: an application of Farr law' was posted on medRxiv (as a preprint and non-peer reviewed article) on 23 Feb 2020

2. Professor Isaac Ben Israel's calculations based on simple statistical analysis:

Isaac Ben-Israel is an Israeli military scientist, general and ex-politician. He currently serves as the chairman of the Israeli Space Agency and the National Council for Research and Development, under the auspices of the Ministry of Science, Technology and Space of Israel. He finished his service in the IDF ranked General, serving as head of the military Administration for the Development of Weapons and the Technological Industry. Between 2010-2012 he served as chief Cybernetics adviser to PM Netanyahu, during which period he founded the National Cyber Bureau in the PM office and launched the National Cyber Initiative.

Isaac Ben Israel's statistical analysis of the spread of COVID-19 shows a pattern and resembles a curve

A prominent Israeli mathematician, analyst and former general Isaac Ben Israel claims that simple statistical analysis demonstrates that the spread of COVID-19 follows a pattern and resembles a curve. Prof Isaac Ben-Israel, head of the Security Studies program in Tel Aviv University and the chairman of the National Council for Research and Development, has explained the research he conducted with a fellow professor, analyzing the growth and decline of new cases in countries around the world, showed repeatedly that “there’s a set pattern” and “the numbers speak for themselves.”

He says the numbers peak after about 40 days and decline to almost zero after 70 days — no matter where it strikes, and no matter what measures governments impose to try to thwart it.

3. Data analysis based on the SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered) epidemic model by the Singapore University of Technology and Design (SUTD)

The researchers at SUTD have used the "SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered) epidemic model" using the data from different countries to predict the key dates of transition during the coronavirus lifecycle across the globe.

When Will COVID-19 End Data-Driven Estimation of End Dates (as of April 25, 2020, daily updated) by Singapore University of Technology and Design (SUTD), Data-Driven Innovation Lab

The SUTD has predicted through mathematical modelling that COVID-19 will end 97% in India around May 21. The model uses data from Our World in Data and applies the SIR Model for Spread of Disease, The Differential Equation Model. According to SUTD, the prediction is updated daily with the latest data and the analysis and predictions are only for educational and research purposes. They have also put a disclaimer that the report may contain errors. The model and data are inaccurate to the complex, evolving, and heterogeneous realities of different countries. Predictions are uncertain by nature. Readers must take any predictions with caution. Overly optimism based on some predicted end dates is dangerous because it may loosen our disciplines and controls and cause the turnaround of the virus and infection, and must be avoided.

Click here to read the article on When Will COVID-19 End Data-Driven Estimation of End Dates (as of April 25, 2020, daily updated) by Singapore University of Technology and Design (SUTD), Data-Driven Innovation Lab

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One thought on “Three data-driven analyses on the pattern of COVID-19 pandemic and when it will probably end.”

Dr VIDYARANYA HM says:

April 28, 2020 at 1:46 pm

Dental surgeons should also be considered in this national level health crisis, in all the way. thank you sir

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